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The application of statistical analysis, mathematical modeling, game theory and other quantitative scientific methods to explore political phenomena.

Monday, November 01, 2004

Senate and House Projections

from easiest to hardest:

Things have imprioved for the GOP, mainly because the contested seats are in red states.

Illinois: Democrat pick-up. Sure thing

Georgia: Republican "pick-up" Nearly sure thing

South Carolina: Republican pick-up - state is just too GOP for even a moron like DeMint to throw away.

Louisiana: Runoff in December. No one will get 50%

Kentucky: Republican Hold - Bunning will resign sometime after the election and be replaced with a Republican who is not ill.

Alaska: Democrat pick-up - Knowles is popular.

Colorado: Democratic pick-up - Salazar looks good here

Florida: Democratic Hold - Kerry's win will give Castor the edge.

Oklahoma: Republican hold - Another GOP stronghold

South Dakota: Republican pick-up - The Incumbant rule works against the minority leader.

North Carolina: Democratic Hold - this is just a guess because I won't pick a tie.

That makes it 51-47-1 with LA to be resolved. The GOP holds as states have recently been breaking their way. I believe the GOP will hold the House, but not gain seats so Kerry will have a GOP congress. With Delay in charge, the House will be extremely unfriendly to Kerry, but the new President will have a much better relationship with his stomping grounds. He is well respected by several GOP senators: Hagel, McCain, Luger, Spector, Chafee, Snowe to name a few. He knows how the Senate works. Expect new Kerry legeslation to be negotiated with his buddy GOP Senators.
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