Polimetrics

Final Projection 11/1 6:00 PM
Kerry 60,502,000 50.0% 291 EV
Bush 58,524,000 48.4% 247 EV
Other 1,936,000 1.6%

click here for electoral map

Probability Bush wins each state:
NM 24.9%
IA 29.7%
FL 29.8%
OH 54.0%

Overall Winning Probability:
Kerry 83.8% Bush 16.1%

Bush -/+ Today (Yesterday)

-75.8 (-75.8) District of Columbia
-32.3 (-32.2) Massachusetts
-28.1 (-28.0) Rhode Island
-27.8 (-27.6) New York
-20.9 (-20.8) Connecticut
-19.1 (-18.7) New Jersey
-18.0 (-18.9) Maryland
-17.8 (-17.7) Delaware
-17.5 (-17.4) Vermont
-14.1 (-14.0) Hawaii
-14.0 (-13.7) California
-13.6 (-14.4) Illinois
-10.6 (-12.2) Maine
-9.1 (-8.5) Washington
-6.4 (-6.4) Michigan
-6.1 (-6.3) Pennsylvania
-5.4 (-4.6) Minnesota
-5.4 (-5.4) Oregon
-4.7 (-3.4) New Hampshire
-3.7 (-3.6) Wisconsin
-1.7 (-1.6) New Mexico
-1.3 (-1.4) Iowa
-1.3 (-1.0) Florida
0.3 (1.0) Ohio
2.0 (0.6) Nevada
3.4 (3.4) Missouri
4.6 (4.7) Virginia
5.3 (4.8) Colorado
5.6 (7.9) West Virginia
7.1 (7.2) Arkansas
8.2 (4.4) Arizona
10.7 (10.8) Louisiana
12.3 (11.8) North Carolina
13.0 (12.6) Georgia
13.3 (10.8) Tennessee
14.1 (14.2) Mississippi
15.2 (17.8) Alabama
16.2 (17.4) South Carolina
18.0 (9.4) Indiana
19.3 (18.1) Kentucky
21.9 (22.0) Kansas
22.0 (22.1) Texas
22.4 (22.5) South Dakota
22.7 (22.8) Alaska
23.5 (23.6) Montana
23.9 (24.0) North Dakota
27.1 (27.2) Nebraska
28.3 (27.9) Oklahoma
35.9 (36.0) Idaho
37.0 (37.1) Wyoming
43.4 (43.5) Utah

Current Battleground Chart
Polimetrics Partisan Index
Polimetrics Partisan Index - Electoral Vote Analysis

This is my final run which again shows little change from yesterday as undecided voters continue to break towards Kerry as expected. Ohio is nearly tied now which makes Kerry a 5-1 Favorite tomorrow.

MY PREDICTION

Kerry will win, and my model is probably conservative:

If I go by only the polls, Kerry adds Ohio and increases his margin in Florida for a 311-227 win.

Every poll and early voting has shown turnout will be high. I rarely believe the turnout predictions, but empirical evidence supports that claim. For example:
1/3 of Florida voters have already voted.
There are 6 million more registered voters than my original projection based on US Census data. Heavy turnout is bad for Bush. As Sabato says, "most of those new voters will not be coming out to say, 'Good job Mr. President.'.

Conservatives have Kerry ahead or tied. Sabato predicts a 269-269 tie. Fox poll has Kerry ahead in the nation and Florida using conservative likely voter screens. Gallup has the race a tie with another sample that is plus 5 GOP.

My final prediction: Kerry wins 51.5%-47.0%-1.5%, 121 million total votes. He will add Nevada for a 316-222 win. There will be no lawsuits.