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The application of statistical analysis, mathematical modeling, game theory and other quantitative scientific methods to explore political phenomena.
Monday, October 25, 2004
REVISED Projection 10/25 11:30 PM
Kerry 58,456,000 49.9% 284 EV
Bush 56,830,000 48.5% 254 EV
Other 1,872,000 1.6%
Probability of Bush Winning:
NM 33.6%
WI 36.4%
FL 41.3%
IA 58.2%
OH 67.5%
Overall Winning Probability:
Kerry 65.8% Bush 34.2%
Ok, the earlier results are modified due to a revision in the Gallup numbers and an addition of the LA Times poll. I also added individual probabilities for the 5 critical states and an overall probability of winning based on independence among the results from these 5 states. This may be an invalid assumption because there is almost certainly a correlation among the expected results for WI and IA and possibly OH.
These results are more in line with prior runs. One can see how even the smallest outlier can really swing the numbers. Anyone who says they can predict a winner today must be looking at numbers not reported to the public.
If you want to really get educated about polling check out the articles by The Mystery Pollster . This series of daily articles from an experienced pollster really gets behind the calculation of the numbers and discusses the recent controverisies.
Kerry 58,456,000 49.9% 284 EV
Bush 56,830,000 48.5% 254 EV
Other 1,872,000 1.6%
Probability of Bush Winning:
NM 33.6%
WI 36.4%
FL 41.3%
IA 58.2%
OH 67.5%
Overall Winning Probability:
Kerry 65.8% Bush 34.2%
Ok, the earlier results are modified due to a revision in the Gallup numbers and an addition of the LA Times poll. I also added individual probabilities for the 5 critical states and an overall probability of winning based on independence among the results from these 5 states. This may be an invalid assumption because there is almost certainly a correlation among the expected results for WI and IA and possibly OH.
These results are more in line with prior runs. One can see how even the smallest outlier can really swing the numbers. Anyone who says they can predict a winner today must be looking at numbers not reported to the public.
If you want to really get educated about polling check out the articles by The Mystery Pollster . This series of daily articles from an experienced pollster really gets behind the calculation of the numbers and discusses the recent controverisies.
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