Polimetrics

Projection 10/31 9:00 PM
Kerry 60,604,000 50.1% 291 EV
Bush 58,422,000 48.3% 247 EV
Other 1,936,000 1.6%

click here for electoral map

Probability Bush wins each state:
NM 26.5%
IA 29.3%
FL 35.1%
NV 59.4%
OH 65.8%

Overall Winning Probability:
Kerry 76.9% Bush 23.3%

Bush -/+ Today (Yesterday)

-75.8 (-75.8) District of Columbia
-32.2 (-31.6) Massachusetts
-28.0 (-27.5) Rhode Island
-27.6 (-27.0) New York
-20.8 (-22.0) Connecticut
-18.9 (-20.1) Maryland
-18.7 (-17.7) New Jersey
-17.7 (-17.1) Delaware
-17.4 (-16.8) Vermont
-14.4 (-14.5) Illinois
-14.0 (-13.4) Hawaii
-13.7 (-13.1) California
-12.2 (-11.6) Maine
-8.5 (-7.9) Washington
-6.4 (-4.6) Michigan
-6.3 (-5.7) Pennsylvania
-5.4 (-4.4) Oregon
-4.6 (-4.2) Minnesota
-3.6 (-2.1) Wisconsin
-3.4 (-5.0) New Hampshire
-1.6 (0.0) New Mexico
-1.4 (-0.1) Iowa
-1.0 (-0.5) Florida
0.6 (3.7) Nevada
1.0 (0.8) Ohio
3.4 (4.1) Missouri
4.4 (5.0) Arizona
4.7 (5.2) Virginia
4.8 (5.1) Colorado
7.2 (7.0) Arkansas
7.9 (6.3) West Virginia
9.4 (17.2) Indiana
10.8 (11.4) Tennessee
10.8 (11.4) Louisiana
11.8 (12.4) North Carolina
12.6 (13.2) Georgia
14.2 (14.8) Mississippi
17.4 (18.0) South Carolina
17.8 (18.4) Alabama
18.1 (18.7) Kentucky
22.0 (22.6) Kansas
22.1 (22.7) Texas
22.5 (23.1) South Dakota
22.8 (23.3) Alaska
23.6 (24.2) Montana
24.0 (24.6) North Dakota
27.2 (27.8) Nebraska
27.9 (28.5) Oklahoma
36.0 (36.6) Idaho
37.1 (37.7) Wyoming
43.5 (43.8) Utah

Current Battleground Chart
Polimetrics Partisan Index
Polimetrics Partisan Index - Electoral Vote Analysis

The critical state of PA has moved steadily towards Kerry leaving Bush a ghost of chance there. The weird polling data has dropped out of the Zogby 4 day average of NM sending that state back to Kerry.

Spooky day with the National tracking polls - the one that most favored Kerry was Fox. Go figure.

The polls are now coming out at a rate of 60 per day. They don't show much change. If anything, the bin Laden tape actually hurt Bush's numbers, but I believe we are seeing more of the undecideds deciding for Kerry as expected.

I haven't written much about the senate, but appears the democrats would need a lot of luck to win. They need a net gain of one - and as I see it now, they will swap IL and GA, likely gains in AK and CO, likely loss in SC, and fight in OK, NC, SD. LA will probably go to a December runoff if the GOP doesn't win outright on 11/2.

The tossup senate races are in solid Bush states and three are current Dems. Even if they split 2-2, the GOP holds the senate.