Polimetrics

Projection 10/30 5:00 PM
Kerry 60,192,000 49.8% 286 EV
Bush 58,836,000 48.6% 252 EV
Other 1,936,000 1.6%

click here for electoral map

Probability Bush wins each state:
FL 42.0%
IA 48.3%
NM 50.6%
OH 62.4%

Overall Winning Probability:
Kerry 73.8% Bush 26.2%

New Mexico is essentially a tie right now, Bush leads by about 1000 votes - right about where it was in 2000. If Gore had won NH in 2000, NM would have been litigated as well as Florida. Now, as it was then, NM is irrelevent unless WI comes back into play.

Colorado seems out of play as well - I never thought it was in play unless Kerry wins comfortably. Keep in mind in my projections, I only concern myself with scenarios that could actually change the outcome - last time only FL and NH were close enough to change the outcome. This time, it is FL or OH. Cheney must be working on his tan in Hawaii.

A year ago experts broke the battleground into three parts - the Southwest (NM, NV, CO, AZ) the Great Lakes (MI PA MN WI IA OH) and Florida (FL). I remember many telling me that the Southwest strategy was the best chance for the democrats. I simply replied with battleground probabilities showing the most important states in a close election. The top state is Florida - by far. 80% of the simulations in a tied election had Florida going with the winner. The six Great lake States came next. Kerry has intelligently focused most of his time doing the Midwest - Florida shuffle.

Three days to go and there is little movement in the polls. Yesterday, all the lazy media talked about was the effect the Osama Bin Laden video would have on the electorate. Does this qualify as an "October surprise?" I don't think so. Killing Bin Laden would have some effect on the election, but knowing that he is alive and hates America is not news. Frankly, all I care about the video is if it can be analyzed for any information to his whereabouts.

With all the early voting, the exit polls may be more suspect than the last election. In my county, 40% are voting absentee. Based on polling, the early voting has been about 50-50 between Kerry and Bush, and improvement for the Democrats from 2000 when Bush won the early voting by about 15%. Whether this is a portend for the election or just the democrats GOTV strategy of getting their voters to the polls early remains to be seen. I will say this: someone who has voted has a 100% chance of voting. Things happen on election day to prevent people from voting - work, life, patience get in the way. There is no down side in getting your supporters to vote early.