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The application of statistical analysis, mathematical modeling, game theory and other quantitative scientific methods to explore political phenomena.
Friday, October 29, 2004
Projection 10/29 3:00 PM
Kerry 60,274,000 49.8% 291 EV
Bush 58,752,000 48.6% 247 EV
Other 1,936,000 1.6%
click here for electoral map
Probability Bush wins each state:
IA 38.9%
FL 45.5%
NM 48.0%
OH 51.2%
Overall Winning Probability:
Kerry 76.7% Bush 23.3%
Current Battleground Chart
Polimetrics Partisan Index
Very slight movement in polls today - this run is almost identical with 2 days ago.
One new piece of information was that are now approximately 143,000,000 registered voters, a staggering 5,000,000 more than my projection. Therefore I now predict the turnout will be over 120,000,000. I calculate 84% to 86% of the registered voters will vote - I derive this number by starting with last election's 83% and increasing it slightly due to interest and early voting.
Kerry 60,274,000 49.8% 291 EV
Bush 58,752,000 48.6% 247 EV
Other 1,936,000 1.6%
click here for electoral map
Probability Bush wins each state:
IA 38.9%
FL 45.5%
NM 48.0%
OH 51.2%
Overall Winning Probability:
Kerry 76.7% Bush 23.3%
Current Battleground Chart
Polimetrics Partisan Index
Very slight movement in polls today - this run is almost identical with 2 days ago.
One new piece of information was that are now approximately 143,000,000 registered voters, a staggering 5,000,000 more than my projection. Therefore I now predict the turnout will be over 120,000,000. I calculate 84% to 86% of the registered voters will vote - I derive this number by starting with last election's 83% and increasing it slightly due to interest and early voting.
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