Links
Data Sites
- American Research Group
- Annenberg Public Policy Center
- Cold Hearted Truth
- Computational Politics
- Cook Political Report
- CQ Politics
- D.C.s Political Report
- Election Futures Market
- Election Prediction
- Election Projection
- Electoral-vote.com
- Field Poll (California)
- Five Thirty Eight
- Forum Journal - Applied Research in Contemporary Politics
- Gallup Research
- Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research
- Harris Interactive
- Hedgehog Report
- House Race Tracker
- Intrade Prediction market
- ISPOS News Center
- Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball
- Mason-Dixon Polls
- Majority Watch 06 House Polls
- Pew Research Center
- Political Arithmetik
- Polling Report
- Pollster.com (Mystery Pollster)
- Professor Pollkatz
- Princeton Election Consortium
- Quinnipiac
- Presidential Electoral College Predictions
- Race 2004 State Polls
- Rasmussen Reports
- Roper Organization
- Rothenberg Political Report
- Survey USA
- Statistical Modeling (Andrew Gelmen Blog)
- Swing State Project
- TPM Cafe Election Central
- 270 to win
- United States Election Project
- U.S. Election Atlas
- World Election Data
- Zogby International
My Favorite Blogs (Left to Right)
- Atrios
- Open Left
- My DD
- Daily Kos
- Talking Points Memo
- Political Wire
- Andrew Sullivan
- Real Clear Politics
- Red State
Archives
The application of statistical analysis, mathematical modeling, game theory and other quantitative scientific methods to explore political phenomena.
Thursday, October 28, 2004
Projection 10/28 5:00 PM
Kerry 58,718,000 50.1% 311 EV
Bush 56,561,000 48.3% 227 EV
Other 1,872,000 1.6%
click here for electoral map
Probability Bush wins each state:
NM 26.4%
IA 27.9%
FL 37.4%
OH 44.8%
Current Battleground Chart
Polimetrics Partisan Index
Some significant changes in the polls today - always subject to change.
Colorado has now passed Nevada and may be in play.
Wisconsin and Nevada both leave the battleground. It was a close call not taking WI out yesterday.
The four states in the battleground all now favor Kerry, albeit the two most critical are by razor thin margins.
Kerry's winning percentage has increased to over 80%.
Now one might ask how Kerry's winning percentage could be so high when both Ohio and Florida are so close. This is because Kerry only needs one while Bush needs them both. If these states were both 50-50, Kerry would have a 75% chance of getting at least one. Since they are both slightly Kerry, his winning percentage increases.
Also, removing WI from the battleground makes IA and NM unimportant - combined they can not replace the loss of OH for Bush. As of today, OH and FL are the only states that matter.
John Zogby said today that Kerry will win. I will not be so bold, but it is clear today why Zogby would say that.
Kerry 58,718,000 50.1% 311 EV
Bush 56,561,000 48.3% 227 EV
Other 1,872,000 1.6%
click here for electoral map
Probability Bush wins each state:
NM 26.4%
IA 27.9%
FL 37.4%
OH 44.8%
Current Battleground Chart
Polimetrics Partisan Index
Some significant changes in the polls today - always subject to change.
Colorado has now passed Nevada and may be in play.
Wisconsin and Nevada both leave the battleground. It was a close call not taking WI out yesterday.
The four states in the battleground all now favor Kerry, albeit the two most critical are by razor thin margins.
Kerry's winning percentage has increased to over 80%.
Now one might ask how Kerry's winning percentage could be so high when both Ohio and Florida are so close. This is because Kerry only needs one while Bush needs them both. If these states were both 50-50, Kerry would have a 75% chance of getting at least one. Since they are both slightly Kerry, his winning percentage increases.
Also, removing WI from the battleground makes IA and NM unimportant - combined they can not replace the loss of OH for Bush. As of today, OH and FL are the only states that matter.
John Zogby said today that Kerry will win. I will not be so bold, but it is clear today why Zogby would say that.
Comments:
Post a Comment
