Polimetrics

Projection 10/27 8:30 PM
Kerry 58,623,000 50.0% 291 EV
Bush 56,653,000 48.4% 247 EV
Other 1,872,000 1.6%

click here for electoral map

Probability Bush wins each state:
WI 20.3%
IA 33.1%
NM 34.6%
FL 37.3%
OH 56.8%
NV 75.7%

Overall Winning Probability:
Kerry 76.7% Bush 23.3%


Today showed continued improvement for Kerry in the battleground while national numbers remained flat. PA, one of the original Big 3, now appears to be out of reach. Iowa has swung to Kerry. Additionally, WI has moved to more than +2 Kerry for the first time in weeks. NV now projects to a closer race than WI and is therefore moved to the current battleground along with WI, IA, NM, FL and OH. This leaves 64 possibilities where Kerry wins 43, Bush wins 20 and 3 ties which also count as a Bush win.

It also looks like the magic national popular number has returned to 0.6% that Kerry's votes must exceed Bush's to win Florida, the continuing middle state - the same percentage by which Gore won the populur vote in 2000.

A note about the incumbent rule whic says undecided usually break heavily to the challenger: This is almost always true when the challenger is less well known in the region being contested, which is clearly true of Kerry. An example where it may not hold is if the challenger was also a national figure. For example, Hillary Clinton would not benefit as much as Kerry from the incumbent rule. This rule also applies to state or local races - for example - I would not expect former Governor Knowles to benefit from the incumbent rule in the Alaskan senate race.