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The application of statistical analysis, mathematical modeling, game theory and other quantitative scientific methods to explore political phenomena.
Tuesday, October 26, 2004
Projection 10/26 3:30 PM
Kerry 58,669,000 50.1% 284 EV
Bush 56,608,000 48.3% 254 EV
Other 1,872,000 1.6%
click here for electoral map
Probability Bush wins each state:
WI 31.5%
NM 38.5%
FL 38.6%
IA 51.5%
OH 55.6%
Overall Winning Probability:
Kerry 72.6% Bush 27.4%
Latest run, check out the current battleground chart and compare it to the "Polimetrics Partisan Index I ran last in April. Only Ohio is a suprise among the critical states. I have conjectured that projected outcome can be explained more by the demographic and cultural make-up of a state than by early polls. These final polls are looking much more like the partisan index.
Kerry's numbers improved slightly, but all movement is within the margins of error for various polling agencies. It really comes down to get-out-the-vote.
Kerry 58,669,000 50.1% 284 EV
Bush 56,608,000 48.3% 254 EV
Other 1,872,000 1.6%
click here for electoral map
Probability Bush wins each state:
WI 31.5%
NM 38.5%
FL 38.6%
IA 51.5%
OH 55.6%
Overall Winning Probability:
Kerry 72.6% Bush 27.4%
Latest run, check out the current battleground chart and compare it to the "Polimetrics Partisan Index I ran last in April. Only Ohio is a suprise among the critical states. I have conjectured that projected outcome can be explained more by the demographic and cultural make-up of a state than by early polls. These final polls are looking much more like the partisan index.
Kerry's numbers improved slightly, but all movement is within the margins of error for various polling agencies. It really comes down to get-out-the-vote.
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