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The application of statistical analysis, mathematical modeling, game theory and other quantitative scientific methods to explore political phenomena.
Monday, October 25, 2004
Projection 10/25 4:30 PM
Kerry 58,087,000 49.6% 257 EV
Bush 57,192,000 48.8% 281 EV
Other 1,872,000 1.6%
I might as well call this run of the model "Election 2000". Kerry wins the popular vote, Bush wins the Electoral vote and Florida ends up at 0.1, right in the middle.
A couple of things about today's run: it includes the latest Gallup poll which has been highly critcized due to its sampling of republicans in much higher percentages than the 2000 exit polls. I don't judge Gallup here - I include them as I would any other pollster. Without Gallup's poll, the results would be similar to yesterday's run.
Current discussion is that the five states that will decide the election are NM WI FL IA OH. Other states may be in play but for a candidate to win them means they have probably already won the election. For example, Kerry may win Nevada, or Bush may win Minnesota, but if that happens, the middle states have probably already gone to the winner.
There are 32 possible outcomes for these 5 states: Kerry wins 20 of them, Bush wins 10 and there are 2 ties which also means Bush wins. (Bush needs 42 Evotes, Kerry needs 28 Evotes from these 5 states).
Current Probabilities of victory based on a 2.5% Standard Deviation for the partisan Index:
Kerry 51.5% Bush 48.5%
Very Close Indeed
Kerry 58,087,000 49.6% 257 EV
Bush 57,192,000 48.8% 281 EV
Other 1,872,000 1.6%
I might as well call this run of the model "Election 2000". Kerry wins the popular vote, Bush wins the Electoral vote and Florida ends up at 0.1, right in the middle.
A couple of things about today's run: it includes the latest Gallup poll which has been highly critcized due to its sampling of republicans in much higher percentages than the 2000 exit polls. I don't judge Gallup here - I include them as I would any other pollster. Without Gallup's poll, the results would be similar to yesterday's run.
Current discussion is that the five states that will decide the election are NM WI FL IA OH. Other states may be in play but for a candidate to win them means they have probably already won the election. For example, Kerry may win Nevada, or Bush may win Minnesota, but if that happens, the middle states have probably already gone to the winner.
There are 32 possible outcomes for these 5 states: Kerry wins 20 of them, Bush wins 10 and there are 2 ties which also means Bush wins. (Bush needs 42 Evotes, Kerry needs 28 Evotes from these 5 states).
Current Probabilities of victory based on a 2.5% Standard Deviation for the partisan Index:
Kerry 51.5% Bush 48.5%
Very Close Indeed
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