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The application of statistical analysis, mathematical modeling, game theory and other quantitative scientific methods to explore political phenomena.
Sunday, October 24, 2004
Projection 10/24 3:30 PM
Kerry 58,600,000 50.0% 284 EV
Bush 56,677,000 48.4% 254 EV
Other 1,872,000 1.6%
Not much change from yesterday - the new polls look better for Kerry only because the undecideds have decreased and are moving heavily towards Kerry, as expected.
Hawaii has had a couple of strange polls that look more like a battleground poll. This state has always been rated solid Kerry - the partisan index rating is +23 Kerry, so I don't put much faith in these polls. However, Hawaii has now dropped behind California in my ranking, still safe Kerry.
This leads me to a discussion of variability in the partisan index. When testing this model on the 2000 election, there was one state that fell outside the margin of error on projection from the 1980-1996 election data and demographic factors: West Virginia moved eight percent away from the expected partisan index in 2000. Now you might say this discredits the model, but the reality is one would expect 1 in 20 states to fall outside a 95% confidence interval, about two standard deviations from the mean. West Virginia was not only the only state outside of the margin of error, but actually moved outside a 99% margin of error, nearly 3 standard deviations from the mean.
What will the surprise state be this year?
Kerry 58,600,000 50.0% 284 EV
Bush 56,677,000 48.4% 254 EV
Other 1,872,000 1.6%
Not much change from yesterday - the new polls look better for Kerry only because the undecideds have decreased and are moving heavily towards Kerry, as expected.
Hawaii has had a couple of strange polls that look more like a battleground poll. This state has always been rated solid Kerry - the partisan index rating is +23 Kerry, so I don't put much faith in these polls. However, Hawaii has now dropped behind California in my ranking, still safe Kerry.
This leads me to a discussion of variability in the partisan index. When testing this model on the 2000 election, there was one state that fell outside the margin of error on projection from the 1980-1996 election data and demographic factors: West Virginia moved eight percent away from the expected partisan index in 2000. Now you might say this discredits the model, but the reality is one would expect 1 in 20 states to fall outside a 95% confidence interval, about two standard deviations from the mean. West Virginia was not only the only state outside of the margin of error, but actually moved outside a 99% margin of error, nearly 3 standard deviations from the mean.
What will the surprise state be this year?
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