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The application of statistical analysis, mathematical modeling, game theory and other quantitative scientific methods to explore political phenomena.
Saturday, October 23, 2004
Projection 10/23 10:00 PM
Kerry 58,366,000 49.8% 284 EV
Bush 56,913,000 48.6% 254 EV
Other 1,872,000 1.6%
Florida returns to the middle state, but all results are well within the margin of error. Today the battleground is reduced to FL, OH, WI and IA.
The news today was Bush focusing the remainder of his campaign on WI, IA, FL, and NM. He either must feel safe with OH or is writing it off. Seems strange based on these stats, but he may be viewing the strategy of winning WI, IA and FL which is a 271-267 win or even NM instead of IA for a 269-269 tie. The actual polls have Kerry in the lead in OH, it's only the elasticity of the partisan index that puts Ohio just below Florida in my model.
Unlike Florida, losing Ohio doesn't leave Bush hopeless. Still, I find it hard to believe Bush can lose Ohio without also losing Wisconsin.
Early voting statistics in Iowa are about 2-1 in favor of registered Democrats. Will the democratic strategy of getting people to early vote succeed? It will be interesting to measure this effect after the election.
Kerry 58,366,000 49.8% 284 EV
Bush 56,913,000 48.6% 254 EV
Other 1,872,000 1.6%
Florida returns to the middle state, but all results are well within the margin of error. Today the battleground is reduced to FL, OH, WI and IA.
The news today was Bush focusing the remainder of his campaign on WI, IA, FL, and NM. He either must feel safe with OH or is writing it off. Seems strange based on these stats, but he may be viewing the strategy of winning WI, IA and FL which is a 271-267 win or even NM instead of IA for a 269-269 tie. The actual polls have Kerry in the lead in OH, it's only the elasticity of the partisan index that puts Ohio just below Florida in my model.
Unlike Florida, losing Ohio doesn't leave Bush hopeless. Still, I find it hard to believe Bush can lose Ohio without also losing Wisconsin.
Early voting statistics in Iowa are about 2-1 in favor of registered Democrats. Will the democratic strategy of getting people to early vote succeed? It will be interesting to measure this effect after the election.
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