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The application of statistical analysis, mathematical modeling, game theory and other quantitative scientific methods to explore political phenomena.
Friday, October 22, 2004
Projection 10/22 10:00 PM
Kerry 58,929,000 50.3% 304 EV
Bush 56,352,000 48.1% 234 EV
Other 1,872,000 1.6%
Most states are behaving consistant with the partisan index - most notably the continued reddening of Iowa. The one major surprise has been Ohio which is now ranked on the blue side of center. There have been many polls this week rangiong from +6 Kerry to +2 Bush, but no poll has Bush over 47%, a definite sign of trouble for an incumbent. The movement of Ohio now makes Wisconsin the key state - Bush would need to swing 1.7% to win WI and FL to pull off a 271-267 victory. Note the Popular vote difference in 2.2%, so Bush could again win the election and lose the vote.
Kerry 58,929,000 50.3% 304 EV
Bush 56,352,000 48.1% 234 EV
Other 1,872,000 1.6%
Most states are behaving consistant with the partisan index - most notably the continued reddening of Iowa. The one major surprise has been Ohio which is now ranked on the blue side of center. There have been many polls this week rangiong from +6 Kerry to +2 Bush, but no poll has Bush over 47%, a definite sign of trouble for an incumbent. The movement of Ohio now makes Wisconsin the key state - Bush would need to swing 1.7% to win WI and FL to pull off a 271-267 victory. Note the Popular vote difference in 2.2%, so Bush could again win the election and lose the vote.
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