Links
Data Sites
- American Research Group
- Annenberg Public Policy Center
- Cold Hearted Truth
- Computational Politics
- Cook Political Report
- CQ Politics
- D.C.s Political Report
- Election Futures Market
- Election Prediction
- Election Projection
- Electoral-vote.com
- Field Poll (California)
- Five Thirty Eight
- Forum Journal - Applied Research in Contemporary Politics
- Gallup Research
- Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research
- Harris Interactive
- Hedgehog Report
- House Race Tracker
- Intrade Prediction market
- ISPOS News Center
- Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball
- Mason-Dixon Polls
- Majority Watch 06 House Polls
- Pew Research Center
- Political Arithmetik
- Polling Report
- Pollster.com (Mystery Pollster)
- Professor Pollkatz
- Princeton Election Consortium
- Quinnipiac
- Presidential Electoral College Predictions
- Race 2004 State Polls
- Rasmussen Reports
- Roper Organization
- Rothenberg Political Report
- Survey USA
- Statistical Modeling (Andrew Gelmen Blog)
- Swing State Project
- TPM Cafe Election Central
- 270 to win
- United States Election Project
- U.S. Election Atlas
- World Election Data
- Zogby International
My Favorite Blogs (Left to Right)
- Atrios
- Open Left
- My DD
- Daily Kos
- Talking Points Memo
- Political Wire
- Andrew Sullivan
- Real Clear Politics
- Red State
Archives
The application of statistical analysis, mathematical modeling, game theory and other quantitative scientific methods to explore political phenomena.
Thursday, October 21, 2004
Projection 10/21 7:00 PM
Kerry 58,983,000 50.3% 304 EV
Bush 56,288,000 48.1% 234 EV
Other 1,872,000 1.6%
Main difference today is Iowa and Ohio switching. Good polling in OH and FL for Kerry today. Two good polls for Bush in IA.
Today Gallup had Kerry +6 in Ohio and -7 in Wisconsin! Does that make any sense? WI is 2-3% more Dem by the partisan index, so Gallup's results would be a net deviation of 16% from expectation!
Kerry 58,983,000 50.3% 304 EV
Bush 56,288,000 48.1% 234 EV
Other 1,872,000 1.6%
Main difference today is Iowa and Ohio switching. Good polling in OH and FL for Kerry today. Two good polls for Bush in IA.
Today Gallup had Kerry +6 in Ohio and -7 in Wisconsin! Does that make any sense? WI is 2-3% more Dem by the partisan index, so Gallup's results would be a net deviation of 16% from expectation!
Comments:
Post a Comment
