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The application of statistical analysis, mathematical modeling, game theory and other quantitative scientific methods to explore political phenomena.
Wednesday, October 20, 2004
Projection 10/20 7:15 PM
Kerry 59,193,000 50.5% 291 EV
Bush 56,087,000 47.9% 247 EV
Other 1,872,000 1.6%
A small improvement for Kerry based on national polls and some new state polls. Ohio calculates to a difference of about 8,000 votes out of 5.1 million to be cast!
Although the national polls bounce around due to sampling error and methodology, internals of polls have been remarkably consistent: Republicans are about 90-9-1 for Bush, Democrats are about 89-10-1 for Kerry and Independents are about 50-45-5 for Kerry. Deviations in the polls are often due to likely voter screens and the demographics of the sampled group. It seems logical to weight by party ID which is so highly correlatated to the vote, but some pollsters argue that party ID is self-selected and changes with the mood of the voter. We will have to wait for the vote to measure the wisdom of these pollsters.
Kerry 59,193,000 50.5% 291 EV
Bush 56,087,000 47.9% 247 EV
Other 1,872,000 1.6%
A small improvement for Kerry based on national polls and some new state polls. Ohio calculates to a difference of about 8,000 votes out of 5.1 million to be cast!
Although the national polls bounce around due to sampling error and methodology, internals of polls have been remarkably consistent: Republicans are about 90-9-1 for Bush, Democrats are about 89-10-1 for Kerry and Independents are about 50-45-5 for Kerry. Deviations in the polls are often due to likely voter screens and the demographics of the sampled group. It seems logical to weight by party ID which is so highly correlatated to the vote, but some pollsters argue that party ID is self-selected and changes with the mood of the voter. We will have to wait for the vote to measure the wisdom of these pollsters.
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