Polimetrics

4 days before the election I show 78 GOP House seats competitive or potentially competitive compared to only 3 for the democrats.

The dems are almost certain to win the house - my point estimate is currently a net change of 35 seats, an increase of 12 seats from my last post.

Realistic estimates show the democrats pciking up between 20 and 52 seats. My probable interval is between 30 and 41 seats.

The Senate will be the interesting battle. As has been written elsewhere, I go with this ranking:

PA, OH, RI Likely Dem
MT Lean Dem
MO, VA Tossup Leaning Dem
TN Lean GOP
AZ Likely GOP

The Dem seats at risk are NJ and MD - I don't see the GOP taking either seat. Today MD is their best bet, but its still a longshot.

Good outcome for GOP: lose 5 senate seats, lose less than 30 house seats
Good Outcome for the Dems: win 7 senate seats, win more than 40 house seats
Probable outcome: Dems take 35 House seats, 6 Senate Seats

Here are the results to date:

154 (154 GOP 0 Dem) Safe GOP (Lead >15%)
15 ( 15 GOP 0 Dem) Likely GOP (10-15% Lead)
11 ( 11 GOP 0 Dem) Lean GOP (5-10% Lead)
11 ( 11 GOP 0 Dem) Barely GOP (2-5% Lead)
6 ( 6 GOP 0 Dem) Tossup GOP (0-2% Lead)
5 ( 5 GOP 0 Dem) Tossup Dem (0-2% Lead)
10 ( 10 GOP 0 Dem) Barely Dem (2-5% Lead)
14 ( 13 GOP 1 Dem) Lean Dem (5-10% Lead)
7 ( 5 GOP 2 Dem) Likely Dem (10-15% Lead)
202 ( 2 GOP 200 Dem) Solid Dem (Lead >15%)

ST DI Cur Dem Lead Status Result
AZ 1 R -3.0% Barely R
AZ 5 R 0.7% Tossup Switch to D
AZ 8 R 13.5% Likely D Switch to D
CA 4 R -6.5% Lean R
CA 11 R 2.4% Barely D Switch to D
CA 50 R -4.3% Barely R
CO 4 R 1.6% Tossup Switch to D
CO 5 R -6.4% Lean R
CO 6 R -14.1% Likely R
CO 7 R 13.5% Likely D Switch to D
CT 2 R 1.2% Tossup Switch to D
CT 4 R 2.5% Barely D Switch to D
CT 5 R 6.7% Lean D Switch to D
FL 5 R -13.5% Likely R
FL 8 R -9.4% Lean R
FL 13 R 7.3% Lean D Switch to D
FL 16 R 10.1% Likely D Switch to D
FL 22 R 0.0% Tossup
FL 24 R -14.5% Likely R
GA 12 D 7.2% Lean D
IA 1 R 3.8% Barely D Switch to D
IA 2 R -3.0% Barely R
ID 1 R -1.0% Tossup
IL 6 R 5.0% Barely D Switch to D
IL 8 D 11.5% Likely D
IL 10 R -3.1% Barely R
IL 14 R -10.7% Likely R
IL 19 R -14.7% Likely R
IN 2 R 7.9% Lean D Switch to D
IN 3 R -12.8% Likely R
IN 7 D 12.1% Likely D
IN 8 R 15.3% Solid D Switch to D
IN 9 R 3.0% Barely D Switch to D
KS 2 R -2.1% Barely R
KY 2 R -13.2% Likely R
KY 3 R 4.8% Barely D Switch to D
KY 4 R 2.5% Barely D Switch to D
MI 7 R -9.8% Lean R
MI 8 R -12.8% Likely R
MI 9 R -14.1% Likely R
MN 1 R -1.2% Tossup
MN 2 R -11.1% Likely R
MN 6 R -4.1% Barely R
NC 8 R -2.2% Barely R
NC 11 R 8.1% Lean D Switch to D
NE 1 R -10.9% Likely R
NE 3 R 0.0% Tossup Switch to D
NH 1 R -12.1% Likely R
NH 2 R 3.4% Barely D Switch to D
NJ 5 R -13.8% Likely R
NJ 7 R -3.1% Barely R
NM 1 R 7.3% Lean D Switch to D
NV 2 R -5.5% Lean R
NV 3 R -7.3% Lean R
NY 3 R -5.2% Lean R
NY 13 R -12.8% Likely R
NY 19 R 3.4% Barely D Switch to D
NY 20 R 1.5% Tossup Switch to D
NY 24 R 12.2% Likely D Switch to D
NY 25 R 5.4% Lean D Switch to D
NY 26 R 5.2% Lean D Switch to D
NY 29 R 6.6% Lean D Switch to D
OH 1 R 5.0% Lean D Switch to D
OH 2 R -1.5% Tossup
OH 12 R -6.7% Lean R
OH 15 R 7.8% Lean D Switch to D
OH 18 R 15.1% Solid D Switch to D
PA 4 R -2.4% Barely R
PA 6 R 5.5% Lean D Switch to D
PA 7 R 9.0% Lean D Switch to D
PA 8 R -2.3% Barely R
PA 10 R 12.2% Likely D Switch to D
TX 22 R 8.2% Lean D Switch to D
TX 23 R -6.8% Lean R
VA 2 R -0.8% Tossup
VA 10 R -5.1% Lean R
WA 5 R -6.3% Lean R
WA 8 R -0.5% Tossup
WI 8 R 4.1% Barely D Switch to D
WV 2 R -11.5% Likely R
WY 1 R -4.2% Barely R