Polimetrics

2006 Election Status - House Model

To come up with a quanitifiable model for the House is a challenge: different districts are often in the same city and area code, voters often cannot even name their member of congress are the just the beginning of difficulties pollsters encounter. Another method is to look at the GOP/Dem vote in past elections which is not always avialable for districts that cross county lines. Still, I gave it a shot and here are the results.

The model incorporates the following:

micro statistics:
the ratings experts: Sabato, Cook, CQ Politics, Rothenberg and Bowers
polls: all polls adjusted for time and partisan bias
macro statistics:
generic congressional ballot
direction of country

Here are the results to date:

166 (166 GOP 0 Dem) Safe GOP (Lead >15%)
10 ( 10 GOP 0 Dem) Likely GOP (10-15% Lead)
16 ( 16 GOP 0 Dem) Lean GOP (5-10% Lead)
4 ( 4 GOP 0 Dem) Barely GOP (2-5% Lead)
13 ( 13 GOP 0 Dem) Tossup GOP (0-2% Lead)
1 ( 1 GOP 0 Dem) Tossup Dem (0-2% Lead)
7 ( 7 GOP 0 Dem) Barely Dem (2-5% Lead)
16 ( 13 GOP 3 Dem) Lean Dem (5-10% Lead)
5 ( 1 GOP 4 Dem) Likely Dem (10-15% Lead)
197 ( 1 GOP 196 Dem) Solid Dem (Lead >15%)

If all races hold exactly as predicted, the Dems would win 23 seats and would control the House 226 to 209.

Even if the Dems lost all races they led by 5% or less, they would still win 15 seats and barely win the House 218-217.

However, the GOP has much more to lose. If the GOP loses all seats they have a 5% or less lead in, they would lose a staggering 40 seats and the new House would be 243-192 Dem, a dramatic change in power. In fact, there are 13 seats where the GOP holds a bare lead of under 2% while there is only 1 seat where the Dems have a bare lead.

The GOP currently have 66 seats at risk (competitive) while the Dems have only 7. In fact, every Dem seat has a projected lead for the Dems of over 5%. It is highly possible that the Dems will not lose a single seat in the House.

I know many democrats are afraid of saying they are going to win the house due to the results of 2020 and 2004 where the results and polls were not in alignment. I have written about the 2004 race in particular where I showed the states that were the most off from the model were NY, NJ and CT - the three states most affected by the terrorist attacks of 9/11. I also conjectured that these states which undersampled GOP voters the most were the ones where the GOP message of fear was most effective - and that scared voters are also most likely to avoid strangers - in particular the exit polsters.

Is the scared voter still causing bias to the polls? There is no way to measure that accurately people who choose not be polled or if the message of fear will be effective in this election. I will limit myself to the statistics which currenlt show an overwhleming lead for the Dems, much larger then the lead they apparently had in 2004.

ST DI Cur Dem Lead Status Result
AZ 01 R -5.5% Lean R
AZ 05 R -7.3% Lean R
AZ 08 R 15.5% Solid D Switch to D
CA 04 R -8.3% Lean R
CA 11 R -0.5% Tossup
CA 50 R -9.0% Lean R
CO 04 R -6.7% Lean R
CO 05 R -8.7% Lean R
CO 07 R 8.2% Lean D Switch to D
CT 02 R -0.6% Tossup
CT 04 R 2.1% Barely D Switch to D
CT 05 R -1.3% Tossup
FL 08 R -12.7% Likely R
FL 13 R 6.8% Lean D Switch to D
FL 16 R 8.3% Lean D Switch to D
FL 22 R -0.9% Tossup
GA 08 D 9.7% Lean D
GA 12 D 6.3% Lean D
IA 01 R 4.7% Barely D Switch to D
IA 02 R -6.5% Lean R
IA 03 D 13.4% Likely D
ID 01 R -8.6% Lean R
IL 06 R 0.5% Tossup Switch to D
IL 08 D 8.7% Lean D Switch to D
IL 10 R -10.2% Likely R
IL 14 R -14.1% Likely R
IN 02 R 8.2% Lean D
IN 03 R -14.0% Likely R
IN 07 D 12.0% Likely D
IN 08 R 15.0% Likely D Switch to D
IN 09 R 7.3% Lean D Switch to D
KS 02 R -11.8% Likely R
KY 02 R -13.6% Likely R
KY 03 R -1.9% Tossup
KY 04 R -2.3% Barely R
MI 07 R -14.7% Likely R
MI 08 R -14.7% Likely R
MN 01 R -3.4% Barely R
MN 06 R 3.6% Barely D Switch to D
NC 08 R -1.1% Tossup
NC 11 R 7.3% Lean D Switch to D
NE 01 R -12.6% Likely R
NH 02 R -8.0% Lean R
NJ 07 R -5.3% Lean R
NM 01 R 8.5% Lean D Switch to D
NV 02 R -4.5% Barely R
NV 03 R -7.3% Lean R
NY 03 R -6.9% Lean R
NY 19 R -1.7% Tossup
NY 20 R -1.1% Tossup
NY 24 R 7.4% Lean D Switch to D
NY 25 R -1.8% Tossup
NY 26 R 9.2% Lean D Switch to D
NY 29 R -0.7% Tossup
OH 01 R -0.2% Tossup
OH 02 R -3.3% Barely R
OH 12 R -13.7% Likely R
OH 15 R 4.6% Barely D Switch to D
OH 18 R 8.3% Lean D Switch to D
PA 04 R -8.9% Lean R
PA 06 R 5.1% Lean D Switch to D
PA 07 R 4.3% Barely D Switch to D
PA 08 R -1.8% Tossup
PA 10 R 8.8% Lean D Switch to D
TX 22 R 8.6% Lean D Switch to D
TX 23 R -7.4% Lean R
VA 02 R 3.0% Barely D Switch to D
VA 10 R -8.5% Lean R
VT 01 D 10.8% Likely D
WA 05 R -10.0% Lean R
WA 08 R -1.2% Tossup
WI 08 R 3.2% Barely D Switch to D
WV 01 D 14.5% Likely D
WY 01 R -8.7% Lean R